Oil Shock Will Require Drastic Transport Changes
October 23rd, 2008
Drastic steps will be needed to curb NZ oil consumption in the coming years primarily in the transport sector if the country is to ward off long-term economic contraction as global demand exceeds supply and long term oil prices skyrocket. Senior North Shore City transport strategist, Archer Davis, of Engineers for Social Responsibility, says the present lull in oil prices will be short lived. He says a conservative estimate of a 4% annual decline in oil supply raises the prospect of a 12% contraction of NZ’s economy over 15 years.
Peak Production Looming Closer. Davis says his calculations are based on an International Energy Agency indication three years ago of a 50% chance of reaching global peak oil production in 2012. Davis claims this probability assessment of the leading international oil management organisation has since been overtaken by estimates of an even more imminent peak, after which supplies will become scarcer, costlier and of lower quality. NZ could be left on even shorter rations as bilateral deals between producers and large consuming nations such as the US and China sew up dwindling supplies.
Rationing And Policy Rethink Needed. Davis says NZ’s only hope of averting a crisis caused by high oil prices is to “decouple” energy consumption from GDP by using oil and other resources far more efficiently. Urgent measures needed in transport include ending Govt subsidies for “personal car infrastructure”; stopping free parking; converting public transport vehicles, including buses, to electricity; converting motorway lanes to public transport and supporting car “clubs” of shared vehicle use rather than individual ownership.
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