NZ Transport Cost: Brace for higher fuel costs as crude heads north
February 3rd, 2010
Surging demand for crude oil is likely to increase costs for all transportation modes in 2010. China is poised to lift oil imports 15% this year, as the world’s fastest-growing economy moves into the second phase of building its strategic reserves. This is just one factor likely to underpin the price of crude in 2010, which Goldman Sachs forecasts will average $US90 a barrel this year, some 15% above current levels. Goldman predicts the price is likely to average $US110 in 2011.
Goldman analyst Jeffrey Currie says global consumption of crude will have returned to pre-financial crisis levels by the third quarter, which is likely to create a demand squeeze as development lags for new fields. Capacity constraints are likely to hit by 2011. Crude oil soared almost 80% in 2009 amid signs the global economy was emerging from its slump.
The US Energy Department is more sanguine in its predictions for 2010, forecasting an average $US79.83 a barrel for the US benchmark price, up from last year’s average $US61.66. Global oil consumption this year will rise 1.3% to 85.18m barrels a day, and climb a further 1.7% in 2011.
Copyright © Media Information Ltd
NZ Transport Intelligence Briefing
Amalgamated Dairies
Strait Shipping