New Time Frame, Costs Estimates For Gully Route
August 21st, 2008
Transmission Gully, when approved, will take almost almost eight years to build – and the project could cost up to $170m more than the most recent projections if bad weather or further geological problems are uncovered during construction. A Scheme Assessment report to NZ Transport Agency shows the project’s 95 percentile estimate – effectively a worst-case scenario cost – could balloon to $1.19bn, significantly higher than its current $1.02bn price tag. However, this is rated only a “one-in-20″ scenario.
Savings Also Possible. Principal Project Manager, Rob Whight, says the higher cost estimate stems from the risk of tackling such a massive project and equally there are other estimates which show $200m could be saved if construction goes off without a hitch. “Risk will exist all the way until the day you finish the job. That’s the reality of any project. The trick is to get the balance of risk right.” The report also predicts more than 24,000 vehicles will use the new highway each day, and recommends one mega-contract be let for its construction. It predicts if it is not built, the coastal highway faces rush-hour gridlock. Traffic studies predict a 15% increase in vehicle movements on the coastal highway between 2016 and 2026, and an almost 40% increase in heavy vehicle movement within 20 years. Delay times on the highway are predicted to increase between 2006 and 2026 by 80% in the afternoon rush hour.
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